The Northwest Progressive Institute (NPI) released a “Civic Heartbeat” poll yesterday that found razor close races in the contest for Seattle Mayor and for Seattle City Attorney. Support for incumbent Mayor Bruce Harrell and incumbent City Attorney Ann Davison were both well below the 50% mark, pointing to some vulnerability and a challenging fight ahead to retain their seats.
NPI executive director Andrew Villeneuve said the race is within the statistical margin, effectively a dead heat, but some signs point to momentum on lead challenger Katie Wilson’s side. Wilson is general secretary of the Seattle Transit Riders Union and a longtime progressive coalition leader challenging a more centrist, corporate-aligned incumbent in Harrell.
“Harrell starts out with a symbolic two-point lead in this month’s horserace polling, but Wilson takes over that symbolic lead after voters see a list of the candidates’ occupations from the voter’s pamphlet distributed by King County Elections and get invited to read the complete statements for all eight candidates on King County’s official website,” Villeneuve said.
Change Research conducted the poll of 651 likely Seattle primary voters and went to field from July 23 to 25. In the first “who are you voting for” question, the poll found a two-point lead for Harrell over Wilson and no other candidates attracting significant support. Initially, 39% were unsure who to support.
- Bruce Harrell: 29%
- Katie Wilson: 27%
- Joe Mallahan: 3%
- Clinton Bliss: 1%
- Ry Armstrong: 0%
- Isaiah Willoughby: 0%
- Thaddeus Whelan: 0%
- Joe Molloy: 0%
- Not sure: 39%
The pollster followed up with a “forced choice” question for the undecided asking “if you had to choose, who would you vote for?” Wilson and Harrell each grabbed 12% of the undecideds. Most remained unsure so the pollster followed up with excerpts taken directly from the voter pamphlet for each candidate. And the asked “Based on this additional information from the voter’s pamphlet, who are you voting for to be Mayor of Seattle?” Wilson then took the lead::
- Katie Wilson: 35%
- Bruce Harrell: 33%
- Joe Mallahan: 6%
- Clinton Bliss: 3%
- Ry Armstrong: 1%
- Isaiah Willoughby: 1%
- Joe Molloy: 1%
- Thaddeus Whelan: 0%
- Not sure: 19%
Wilson’s lead widened slightly when the poll asked about a hypothetical head-to-head between Wilson and Harrell, which seems an increasingly likely matchup based on polling data.
QUESTION: If the November general election were being held now and the top two candidates were Bruce Harrell and Katie Wilson, who would you vote for?
ANSWERS:
- Katie Wilson: 40%
- Bruce Harrell: 37%
- Not sure: 24%
The poll also found a significant gulf in candidate favorability ratings. Wilson led the pack with net +16% favorability, while everyone else appeared underwater, including Harrell at net -9%.
Before Wilson entered the race, many prognosticators had declared Harrell’s reelection a layup. However, momentum has appeared to build for Wilson since she entered the race. NPI’s recent finding was in line with its last poll in May, which also found Wilson neck and neck with Harrell, and actually up slightly in a head-to-head matchup.
Wilson’s campaign would argue Harrell’s lackluster poll performance is tied to lackluster performance in office. That said, Villeneuve pointed to a wider trend of incumbents performing poorly in Seattle mayoral contests.
“Now, Harrell is seeking a second term and has the disadvantage — yes, the disadvantage — of incumbency. Readers familiar with Seattle’s political history know that this is a peculiar elected position where the usual political dynamics are kind of inverted,” Villeneuve wrote. “While sitting officeholders are usually favored to win reelection, that simply hasn’t been the case in the Emerald City. No incumbent mayor has been reelected in Washington’s largest municipality since Greg Nickels in 2005, which was 20 years ago.”
When it comes to Seattle Mayor, it’s easier to win the office than keep it.
The battle of media endorsements
Wilson secured the highly-sought endorsement of The Stranger and of The Urbanist Elections Committee (of which I am one of 14 members). Meanwhile, while Harrell did win the Seattle Times endorsement, which typically defines the more conservative centrist lane, the paper’s editorial board was notably backhanded in their writeup, sharing numerous misgivings.
While the conservative-leaning paper loved his partnership with Davison on some (largely symbolic and ineffective) tough-on-crime measures, such as banishment zones and criminalizing public drug use, they hated his recent move to back a business and occupation (B&O) tax restructure that would increased rates on larger companies by about 50% while newly exempting 90% of small businesses from the tax. The Seattle Times editorial board worried the tax would drive a corporate exodus (which didn’t happen after the payroll tax they also lamented and fearmongered about) and fretted that it put the centrist-run City Council in a tough spot.
“Worse, the B&O tax proposal goes to voters in the November election only if his ostensible friends at the City Council decide to place it on the ballot. That puts council members in a very awkward position, only for Harrell to score a few cheap political points weeks before the primary election,” the editorial board wrote. “Harrell’s catch phrase is ‘One Seattle’ but, politically, his modus operandi is more like ‘One Survivor’ — himself.”
And perhaps hoping to wash the progressive stink off himself before Seattle Times publisher Frank Blethen and friends, Harrell apparently told the editorial board that the estimated $90 million in additional B&O tax revenue would be maneuvered to help boost police funding: “[Harrell] also wasn’t totally clear on where the $90 million in new revenue would go, suggesting at one point that it would be shoveled into the city’s General Fund to help pay for police. That’s a far cry from the laundry list of progressive spending priorities ticked off at the proposal’s announcement last month.”
Wilson and her supporters have noted that Harrell was AWOL on progressive tax reform for four years despite major budget shortfalls and challenges…until she finally entered the race and started building political momentum.
Wilson touts labor endorsements
While Harrell was able to secure an endorsement from the MLK County Labor Council, Wilson has peeled away support from more progressive unions.
On July 17, Wilson’s campaign announced she had secured the endorsement of PROTEC17, a labor union that represents thousands of city workers. In a press events on the steps of city hall, PROTEC17 members were joined by representatives of UAW 4121, WFSE 1495, the American Federation of Teachers, and the Working Families Party, who have also endorsed Wilson’s campaign.
“PROTEC17 members believe in Katie Wilson’s vision for a better city, and her clear plan of how we’ll get there together. With an inspiring commitment to building a thriving Seattle that works for all – along with the grit and determination to lead this city into a new era – Katie will find solutions that lift all Seattle residents up,” said Karen Estevenin, Executive Director of the more than 10,000-member union.
Wilson campaign said the PROTEC17 endorsement is “notable because of the intimate understanding this particular group of workers has of city government, alongside and under the current administration.” Technically, Harrell signs their checks, and he’d be in a position to punish bargaining units in their next contract if he was able to pull out the reelection fight. Nonetheless, the union appeared to go with upside over appeasement.
“Standing up to the boss is never easy, but PROTEC17 did it because they know we can do better,” Wilson said. “They know we need a mayor who cares more about the working people of Seattle than corporate donors.”
Wilson focus on housing and cost of living issues appeared to win over union members.
“She’s spent decades pursuing the most essential policy priorities for working people – affordable housing, reliable transit, livable wages, and climate resiliency,” PROTEC17 member Ashley Harrison said in a statement. “We appreciate her commitment to substance over optics – everything we’ve heard from Katie tells us she’s ready to roll up her sleeves and get things done.”
Erika Evans leading challengers to face Davison
The Seattle City Attorney race is hotly contested as well. NPI’s City Attorney poll suggests that Republican incumbent Davison is not in much danger of getting squeezed out of the primary, as she led the poll. However, as an incumbent sitting at just 31%, she also clearly had vulnerability heading into the general election. Former federal prosecutor Erika Evans emerged as the frontrunner among the three progressive challengers.
Evans won 18% of poll respondents, while 5% backed public interest attorney Rory O’Sullivan, and 2% backed public defender Nathan Rouse. All are to the left of Republican Davison. Davison is the only Republican office holder in Seattle. The Urbanist Elections Committee issued a dual endorsement for Evans and O’Sullivan.
The race tightens considerably when the pollster brought in the voter pamphlet statement excerpts.
ANSWERS:
- Ann Davison: 33%
- Erika Evans: 29%
- Rory O’Sullivan: 8%
- Nathan Rouse: 6%
- Not sure: 24%
While Change Research did not ask about a head-to-head matchup in the City Attorney race, it would appear that Rouse and O’Sullivan supporters are more likely to go to the liberal Democrat rather than go over to the conservative Republican incumbent. The three challengers combined grabbed 43% to Davison’s 33%, indicating a tough race for the incumbent.
Seattle voters have until Tuesday, August 5 to weigh in on the primary. With one week to go, King County had received ballots from fewer than 9% of registered voters in Seattle as of Tuesday.
Doug Trumm is publisher of The Urbanist. An Urbanist writer since 2015, he dreams of pedestrian streets, bus lanes, and a mass-timber building spree to end our housing crisis. He graduated from the Evans School of Public Policy and Governance at the University of Washington in 2019. He lives in Seattle's Fremont neighborhood and loves to explore the city by foot and by bike.