Yesterday, the Northwest Progressive Institute (NPI) released a poll that found challenger Katie Wilson had a slight lead over incumbent Bruce Harrell in the Seattle mayoral race. NPI’s May 2025 Civic Heartbeat survey of Seattle voters found 36% of respondents said they would vote for challenger Katie Wilson if the general election for mayor were being held today, while 33% would vote for incumbent Bruce Harrell, and 30% were not sure.
Harrell’s favorability ratings also continue to be underwater, with 42% of respondents expressing an unfavorable opinion of the mayor, 32% expressing a favorable opinion, and 27% neutral on his job performance.
Wilson’s campaign was quick to seize on the positive news in a press release, underscoring the momentum they’ve seen since she jumped in the race on March 12.
“In just two short months, our grassroots movement has surged ahead and taken the lead over an incumbent who once looked invincible,” Wilson said. “This poll confirms what so many of you have been telling me when we’re out tabling, at events, and in our neighborhoods: Seattle is ready for change. Only 37% of voters approve of the job Bruce Harrell is doing — and when people who are undecided hear about our vision, they move our way more than twice as often as they move toward him. That’s powerful.”
For prognosticators who had predicted Mayor Harrell would be a safe bet for reelection, the poll may have come as a jarring result. The mayor is effectively in a statistical tie despite winning his last election by a 17-point margin and consolidating some support among organized labor, including a recent MLK Labor Council endorsement.
The longtime leader of the Transit Riders Union, Wilson has been the architect of many high-profile initiatives, which run the gambit from expanding renter protections, making corporations and the wealthy pay their fair share amidst budget crunches, and raising the minimum wage in multiple cities. Wilson has also contributed articles for The Urbanist along the way.
While she has not held elected office before, Wilson’s resume that provides a sharp contrast with Harrell, who has generally worked from within the system as a moderate over his mayoral term and a 12-year run as a city councilmember.
Former Seattle City Council President Lorena González had also been a big name in 2021, but her bid came up well short. However, three and a half years of Harrell might be tempering voter enthusiasm, and his opponents have argued he has left a trail of broken campaign promises on key issues like housing, homelessness, and public safety in his wake.
An October 2021 poll by NPI showed Harrell resoundingly in the lead over González — albeit after months of ad spending, something that hasn’t yet hit the 2025 race.
“Our campaign is resonating because we’re talking about the real issues: skyrocketing rents, unaffordable child care, long commutes, and the urgent need to get people housed,” Wilson said. “Bruce Harrell has been in City Hall since 2008, and people just aren’t seeing results. It’s time for a mayor who puts everyday Seattleites first.”
Wilson granted that early polling can be faulty and the high number of undecided voters underscored much work remained for her campaign. Wilson invited Seattleites to a rally seeking to keep the campaign momentum going.
“But momentum isn’t enough — a poll this early in the race, with so many voters undecided, doesn’t actually mean much. We’ve got to keep building our movement to reach people all across Seattle, especially the one in two Seattleites who won’t vote in this off-year election unless they hear from us,” she wrote. “That’s why I’m inviting you to a major rally on Saturday, May 31 at 11AM at El Centro de la Raza’s Centilia Cultural Center.“
NPI founder and executive director Andrew Villeneuve noted that undecided voters appeared to shift toward Wilson after learning about her campaign. Pollsters shared unaltered snippets from each candidate’s website if they weren’t yet familiar.
“Our latest Civic Heartbeat survey of Seattle voters finds a competitive race for mayor among the two candidates who’ve raised the most money and demonstrated the most support thus far,” Villeneuve said in a statement. “Incumbent Bruce Harrell and challenger Katie Wilson are the clear frontrunners at this juncture, so we chose to simulate a general election ballot with the two of them as the finalists. Initially, Harrell led, then Wilson picked up support with undecided voters when we followed up with them and asked them to make a choice.”
Villeneuve noted that age demographics is a major factor cleaving the race as well. “In the aggregate, the candidates were very close to each other, with younger voters preferring Wilson and older voters preferring Harrell,” he added. “This race looks like it could go in multiple directions right now and could be one of the most exciting of this local election cycle.”
NPI’s survey consisted of 522 interviews with likely general election voters in Seattle; it fielded from May 10 to 14. The modeled margin of error is 4.4%.
The Urbanist Elections Committee will release its endorsements in July ahead of the August 5 primary.
Doug Trumm is publisher of The Urbanist. An Urbanist writer since 2015, he dreams of pedestrian streets, bus lanes, and a mass-timber building spree to end our housing crisis. He graduated from the Evans School of Public Policy and Governance at the University of Washington in 2019. He lives in Seattle's Fremont neighborhood and loves to explore the city by foot and by bike.
