The race for King County Executive is heating up, and County Councilmember Claudia Balducci says that she has the edge based on her internal polling. King County Council Chair Girmay Zahilay came in second in the poll, which was conducted by Fulcrum Strategic from June 11 to 15. A majority of voters remained undecided in a head-to-head matchup.
Among likely primary voters, the poll found Balducci led the field with 25% of the vote, compared to 21% for Zahilay and 7% for John Arthur Wilson, who is King County Assessor and running in a more conservative lane. Those candidates are the only three in the race with significant campaign operations and fundraising totals.
“In a hypothetical general election matchup, Balducci holds a slight lead 22% to 20% over Zahilay, with over half of voters still undecided,” a Balducci campaign memo states. “When voters read short bios on both Balducci and Zahilay from information taken from the candidates’ websites, her lead over Zahilay grows to +7 in the primary and +4 in the general election.”
The hotly contested open seat race was set off by Dow Constantine’s announcement in November that he would not seek a fifth term as County Executive. Instead Constantine pursued and secured the top post at Sound Transit in March, leaving his County post early to take the agency CEO job. Until results of the November elections are certified, the King County Council appointed Deputy Executive Shannon Braddock to fill in as interim CEO.
The poll would suggest it will be one of the County Councilmembers taking over, rather than Wilson.
Wilson’s harassment scandal
Wilson’s weak performance appears tied to turmoil in his personal life; his ex-fiancée has placed restraining orders against him, saying he is stalking her and sending abusive texts. Wilson has threatened to get his ex’s new dating partner fired via bogus complaints, texts revealed in court documents show. To make matter worse, Wilson may have used data access that his elected office provided him to further his stalking effort.
The Seattle Times reported on the stalking and harassment allegations in January, but the scandal did really reach center stage until this spring, when his ex sought a second restraining order after a brief period of reconciliation, as PubliCola’s Erica Barnett first reported. In May, Balducci and Zahilay called on Wilson to resign his office and exit the race for County Executive, joining a litany of public officials.
“Following the revelations that John Arthur Wilson has had a second restraining order issued against him, I am calling on him to immediately suspend his campaign for County Executive and to resign his position as County Assessor,” Balducci said in a May 29 statement. “While he is entitled to due process under the law for any possible criminal or civil charges, holding public office is a privilege, not a right. And with that privilege comes the responsibility of holding the trust of the people who have elected you. These latest revelations show that he clearly has breached that trust.”
In June, the King County Council passed a no-confidence motion, urging Wilson to step down in a 8-0 vote. Wilson has refused to resign his office or campaign, even as Balducci and others have portrayed his as unfit for office. The ninth councilmember who was absent for that vote, Reagan Dunn, has since also called for Wilson’s resignation.
“[Wilson] proceeded as if a pattern of alleged stalking, harassment and abuse would somehow not be an issue in the selection of our next County Executive,” Balducci said. “The King County Executive is responsible for overseeing the county’s law enforcement and human services programs – including programs dedicated to protect and support women and other survivors of intimate partner violence. It is critical that our next County Executive is a clear ally to survivors. Assessor Wilson is clearly not able to be that ally.”
Wide open race in November
Balducci’s campaign notes they are starting the race with more name recognition than Zahilay (62% vs. 55% in the poll) and a higher favorability net rating from (+10 vs. +5). “These numbers are the first polling results to be released in the County Executive race. Zahilay’s campaign has conducted its own polling, but the results have not been made public,” the Balducci campaign release said.
“Voters who know Claudia understand her unmatched leadership on affordable housing and homelessness response, her transit advocacy, and experience improving public safety,” said Rebecca Rego, campaign manager for Balducci’s County Executive bid. “This strong record is reflected in the endorsements from local Democratic Party organizations countywide, coalescing support from unions representing King County employees, and support from community leaders throughout King County. We’re excited by these results – and understand that we have a lot of work to do in the coming weeks to win this wide open race for Executive.”
As Balducci’s initial interview with The Urbanist noted, her campaign has stressed her policy expertise on the issues of transit, safe streets, and housing. As the long-time Systems Expansion Chair at the Sound Transit Board of Directors, her stamp is on recent light rail expansions and the next batch of extensions to come. She has also guided regional housing and transportation policy at the County and various inter-governmental leadership roles, such as president of the Puget Sound Regional Council.
A resident of the Lake Hills neighborhood of Bellevue, Balducci would be the first Eastside resident to hold the executive position, if elected.
Meanwhile, Zahilay has touted his inclusive approach and the racial equity lens he brings to policymaking. In a recent Urbanist op-ed, he noted his effort to broaden the urbanist tent and raise up marginalized communities, especially in South King County, where he has lived much of his life.
The poll results are the first to be released in the County Executive race. “Zahilay’s campaign has conducted its own polling, but the results have not been made public,” Balducci’s team noted.
On the other hand, Zahilay campaign spokesperson Erik Houser argued their side would prevail thanks to a bold vision and a broad coalition.
“Our campaign is looking forward to the August election because we know what’s at stake — housing, public safety, transit, and the future of our region,” Houser told The Urbanist. “When voters hear about Girmay’s proven leadership, bold vision, and the broad coalition supporting him, we’re confident they’ll choose him to be the next King County Executive.”
Zahilay’s campaign sent out a press release Thursday touting his wide range of endorsements, including top Democratic officials like Bob Ferguson, Attorney General Nick Brown, Congresswoman Pramila Jayapal, and Congressman Adam Smith. Houser said 84 current elected officials have endorsed Zahilay — “more than every other candidate in the race.” Zahilay campaign also noted they were leading in fundraising and endorsements from labor unions and local Democratic party organizations.
“I am humbled by the overwhelming grassroots support our campaign has received, as labor unions, local mayors, and everyday people have volunteered their endorsements and their time to power us to the August primary,” Zahilay said in a statement. “With just a few weeks left before most people start voting, my team and I will be reaching out to as many voters as possible to get our message out.”
Zahilay has raised $793,937 to Balducci’s $610,576 at last report to the Public Disclosure Commission.
Fulcrum’s poll of 500 likely voters had an overall margin of error is +4.4%.
Author’s note: The Urbanist Elections Committee (on which I serve) will issue primary endorsements in July.
Update: This article was updated at 2:15pm with the quote from the Zahilay campaign, received after initial publication. The Zahilay quote and note on endorsements and fundraising was added at 11am Friday.
Doug Trumm is publisher of The Urbanist. An Urbanist writer since 2015, he dreams of pedestrian streets, bus lanes, and a mass-timber building spree to end our housing crisis. He graduated from the Evans School of Public Policy and Governance at the University of Washington in 2019. He lives in Seattle's Fremont neighborhood and loves to explore the city by foot and by bike.