Sound Transit revealed new cost savings on Thursday that are expected to lower the West Seattle Link Extension's budget to a range of $4.9 to $5.3 billion. That would inch Seattle's next light rail line near a level that the agency considers affordable.
The low-end cost estimate is just $700 million over the current amount baked into Sound Transit's finance plan – $4.2 billion – and a far cry from the $6.2 to $6.5 billion estimate that the agency put forward last fall, a number that had already reflected some significant cost-saving measures.
At one point, the cost for West Seattle Link looked to be nearly $8 billion, a number that would have put its viability very much in question.
Last summer, when Sound Transit revealed a $30 to $40 billion agency-wide funding gap through 2046 that would need to be filled in order to advance with planned light rail extensions throughout the region, it was clear that creative solutions would be needed. Now, those are being put on the table.
In addition to optimizing a new light rail station at SoDo next to the existing 1 Line station – reducing its concourse level by two-thirds – and switching to precast segmental construction for a rail bridge over the Duwamish Waterway, Sound Transit has dug up additional savings opportunities by fully eliminating crossover and tail tracks at the Alaska Junction station.
Two station headhouses would be combined into one, with the Jefferson Square shopping center wholly spared from any property impacts.
"One of the disadvantages of having the crossover to the south of the station (at the top) is it requires tail tracks to the south of the crossover, so the trains move from one side to the other. The operator gets out and they have to turn back," Jason Hampton, Sound Transit's High Capacity Transit Development Manager, told the board.
"By not having to build all of that to the south, we're able to look at shifting the station a little bit further north, out of the right-of-way, using the properties that we would need for the station construction," Hampton continued. "And because we're out of the right of way, we're able to move the station much more shallow by avoiding utilities. And so instead of having a station that's near 60-65 feet, we're able to look at a station that is potentially around 35 feet, which makes a lot less requirements for the distance of that vertical circulation and stairs and things underground."
Many of these cost savings depend on fully eliminating a station at Avalon Way, unlocking the ability to redesign a bored tunnel to the Junction and avoiding some high-profile property acquisitions, including the West Seattle Health Club. According to Sound Transit, the ridership impact from removing the middle station in West Seattle is virtually nonexistent, with most riders expected to hop over to one of the other stations.
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But removing the station at Avalon does preclude a major opportunity for transit-oriented development in one of West Seattle's densest neighborhoods.
Without a stop at Avalon, Sound Transit plans to shift the rail guideway north to SW Andover Street, putting the tunnel portal close to the Nucor Steel plant, a move that also reduces impacts to Longfellow Creek, which have been brought up as a criticism by project skeptics.
During Thursday's meeting, Seattle Mayor Katie Wilson prodded Sound Transit staff on the potential impact of giving up the Avalon Station.
"I think eliminating a station isn't something that we should do without very careful consideration," Wilson said.
"The ridership for the Avalon station was one of the lower ridership stations in West Seattle. About half of that ridership would have arrived by bus, and so we're able to continue those bus routes to serve the Alaska Junction and the Delridge station," Hampton said. "There are some trade-offs by not building the Avalon station: those that live in the neighborhood around Avalon, the potential development that could come up around that station, wouldn't be the same without the station."
The $4.9 to $5.3 billion cost estimate does include a 30% contingency, in alignment with Federal Transit Administration (FTA) guidelines – a number that could come down as design gets advanced and the agency understands what's ahead with greater certainty.
West Seattle Link is the next project approved as part of the 2016 Sound Transit 3 (ST3) ballot measure set to start construction, and Sound Transit already has federal approval in hand to move forward. A 2032 grand opening date remains on the calendar – 16 years after voter approval.
But without bringing down costs, the line would have been an obvious target for board members who are much more anxious to see the light rail "spine" head south toward Tacoma (tabbed for 2035) and north toward Everett (slated for 2041).
Everett Mayor Cassie Franklin did ask when the board will be seeing how these cost-saving measures could be applied to other projects in the pipeline (the board's already seen early presentations on Everett Link), but Brad Owen, executive director of the delivery team handling the Ballard and West Seattle lines, noted how much further developed this project is than others.
"One of the unique aspects of the West Seattle project is that we are covered by a [record of decision]. We have a record of decision which allows us to move into final design and focus our efforts on one alignment, one very specific problem to solve," Owen.
Next week, Sound Transit board members will start to look at broader scenarios to bring the overall ST3 system expansion program down to an affordable level, using "building blocks" that could ultimately involve shortening planned rail lines. With these measures being put front-and-center, the potential for West Seattle Link to end up on the chopping block appears significantly reduced.
Costs have been increasing on Seattle's urban lines much faster than the suburban ones, due to guideway complexity, the need for tunneling, and much higher land costs. But it's clear that Sound Transit's capital team has been getting creative about what levers to pull. The real test will be being able to bring costs down on Ballard Link, the most expensive project including in ST3 by a country mile.
"The capital team, under Terri [Mestas] and Brad [Owen], is building the muscle to be able to just simply do better," CEO Dow Constantine said. "To be able to save costs, move faster. And I'm really looking forward to this kind of process being able to be applied to Tacoma and Everett and Ballard and all other projects."
Ryan Packer
