2021 Primary Precinct Results Show Familiar Rich vs Rent-burdened Battle Lines

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Harrell is in a dark blazer and González a blue top.
Mayoral candidates Bruce Harrell and Lorena González advanced to the General. (Photos courtesy of campaigns)

King County Elections finalized Primary Election results on Tuesday and Seattle’s data wizards quickly went to work conjuring maps showing precinct-level results. What emerged was a familiar pattern: left-wing candidates dominated in Seattle’s urban villages, the densest neighborhoods where much of the city’s growth has been funneled by zoning and land use policy.

Center-right candidates like former three-term City Councilmember Bruce Harrell and former Council aide Sara Nelson, on the other hand, dominated along the coasts, view corridors, and in Seattle’s sprawling single-family zones, where the share of renters is much smaller and average household incomes are much higher. Harrell ended up with 34.0% in the Seattle Mayor race and will square off with Council President Lorena González, who pulled in 32.1% in the left lane of the race. In the Seattle City Council Position 9 race, Nelson grabbed 39.5% of the Primary vote, but came up second to attorney, poet, organizer Nikkita Oliver, who won 40.2%, with a broad array of support and endorsements, including The Urbanist Election Committee’s.

Harrell dominated along the cost and in much of West Seattle and Northeast Seattle. González did well in denser areas.
Blue shows precincts where Lorena González won, and red shows where Bruce Harrell came out on top. (Map by Jason Weill via TableauPublic)

Those political fault lines worked out well for the centrist conservative-business coalition in the 2017 mayoral race. Jenny Durkan dominated in homeowner land and much of Downtown, where high-end condos and apartments prevail, and rode into office with a decisive 56.5% win over Urbanist-endorsed lefty Cary Moon. Bruce Harrell’s campaign has been very similar to Jenny Durkan’s, pledging steadiness and pro-business policies rather than progressive boldness and promising to crack down on crime and homeless encampments via removals.

However, four more years of growth has continued to concentrate new residents in apartments in the city’s urban villages. In 2017, Seattle’s population had just crossed the 700,000 mark. Seattle’s population surpassed 761,100 in an April 2020 estimate from the Washington State Office of Financial Management — the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2020 official estimate was inexplicably lower at 737,015. Setting aside strange 2020 Census figures, Seattle has likely added at least 60,000 residents since 2017, and the vast majority (85% or more) of the growth is in urban villages and centers — not the single-family zones where centrists tend to rack up votes. The primary electorate increased in size in correspondence with the population gain: Seattle’s 2021 Primary attracted about 19,000 more ballots than the 2017 Primary, with turnout up slightly from 40.5% to 41.9%.

Harrell dominated along the cost and in much of West Seattle and Northeast Seattle. González did well in denser areas.
Jenny Durkan won in orange precincts and Cary Moon won in blue precincts in this 2017 General Election results map. In the second map blue equals González precinct wins and red equals Harrell wins in 2021. (Both maps by Jason Weill, TableauPublic)

If those newcomers vote and vote with preferences similarly to the neighbors (both are big ifs) then that should be a big boost for progressive candidates. Even if newcomers don’t lean quite as left as their existing urban village residents, the fact that most are renters rather than homeowners could complicate the crafting of effective centrist appeals, which traditionally have spoken to core homeowner concerns.

A progressive renter-powered trend was on full display in 2019, when progressives bested centrist City Council candidates outside of Alex Pedersen’s narrow victory over socialist urbanist Shaun Scott. In fact, even in 2017, voters seemed to favor progressive City Council candidates even in an election Durkan dominated. In the citywide 2017 City Council races, centrist Nelson got pinched out of the primary by progressive Teresa Mosqueda and socialist Jon Grant and González easily dispensed with her challenger for a second term.

Voters appear happy with their pick in Mosqueda as she pulled in 59.4% in the 2021 primary. Councilmember Mosqueda’s map isn’t that illuminating beyond showing a thorough drubbing. When it comes to closer races, it seems pretty clear voters mostly stuck with the same progressive or centrist slate; the maps for Oliver and progressive City Attorney candidate Nicole Thomas-Kennedy are incredibly similar, and mostly similar to González’s map, except that Harrell (who used to be Southeast Seattle’s City Councilmember) made inroads in the Rainier Valley, particularly outside of urban villages, whereas Oliver dominated throughout and Thomas-Kennedy did lose some precincts to the incumbent Pete Holmes. (Shoutout to Jason Weill of Tableau for the lovely maps.)

The consolation for centrists: Downtown has been more of a mixed bag and contains the fastest growing neighborhoods in the city. Mayor Durkan had strength there in 2017, likely relying on higher income voters, and Harrell, Nelson, and Republican City Attorney candidate Ann Davison showed strength in some Downtown precincts, too. According to 2020 Census data, the fastest growing zip codes in Seattle over the past decade are in the Downtown core: 98134 (SoDo) leads the way 88.8% growth, 98121 (Belltown) is next with 69% growth, followed by 98109 (South Lake Union, Uptown, and Westlake) at 69%, and 98101 (Downtown) at 59%.

The fastest growing zip codes in Seattle over the past decade are in the Downtown core. 98134 (SoDo) leads the way 88.8% growth, 98121 (Belltown) is next with 69% growth, followed by 98109 (South Lake Union, Uptown, and Westlake) at 69%, and 98101 (Downtown) at 59%.
The redder the faster growing from 2010-2020, with the darkest red representing 40%+ growth. In fact, the zip code including South Lake Union grew by 67%, adding almost 14,000 people by the Census Bureau’s tally. (Courtesy of Seattle Times)

Many are predicting tight races for Seattle Mayor and the open Seattle City Council seat. The progressive coalition’s stronger appeal to renters should give them a sizable advantage in the long-term as Seattle grows primarily by adding apartments. But will it be enough to carry the day in 2021?

Housing advocates and progressive leaders have argued that single-family zoning consuming 75% of Seattle’s residential land is inequitable and unfair to Black, Indigenous, and people of color (BIPOC) who are increasingly rent-burdened and at risk of being displaced out of the city, if they haven’t been already, after having been denied wealth-building opportunities and the opportunity to own homes for much of Seattle’s history. Eliminating exclusionary zoning is the right thing to do and the progressive policy choice. The slider map below shows how closely voting patterns are linked to zoning.

The map shows where Mandatory Housing Affordability rezones were implemented in 2019 in mutlfamily zones across the city. The Downtown core and University District were rezoned earlier in 2017.Harrell dominated along the cost and in much of West Seattle and Northeast Seattle. González did well in denser areas.
Seattle’s multifamily zoning is highlighted in green and pink and juxtaposed with Weill’s 2021 Mayoral results map. The proposed “citywide” Mandatory Housing Affordability (MHA) rezones were passed and enacted in 2019. (Credit: City of Seattle)
A 1936 redlining map shows the Central Area, Delridge, and Georgetown redlined, while the Rainier Valley, Junction, and lower Ballard and Fremont are in yellow indicating less desirable and worsening areas for banks to make loans.Harrell dominated along the cost and in much of West Seattle and Northeast Seattle. González did well in denser areas.
A 1936 redlining map by Knoll Company next to the 2021 mayoral results shows that González did best in formerly redlined areas deemed “hazardous” and “declining” by lenders, who sought to deny home leans to people of color. Note that N 85th Street was the northern border of Seattle in 1936, before annexations moved it to N 145th Street.

Exclusionary zoning breeds exclusionary politics. One symptom is that many see removing and punishing homeless people as a higher priority that solving the root causes of our homelessness crisis. While the opioid crisis and our patchwork mental health system steals much of the attention, our expensive and rapidly rising housing prices are clearly a major factor driving homelessness. And the insistence in keeping 30 square miles of Seattle gated off for single family homes only is clearly only adding to the housing crisis, driving up housing prices, and denying housing options to younger generations of the working class.

This election both reflects housing and wealth inequality and is very much about solutions to it. González, Oliver, and Mosqueda have stressed that ending exclusionary zoning and investing big time in social housing is a priority and a moral imperative. Benefitting from the status quo, Harrell and Nelson have declined to make such commitments, preferring to keep plans exploratory and vague — and let the data continue to pile up. But since the data in this case is people financially wrecked and pushed out of Seattle by our inequitable housing system, delay comes at a big cost.

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Doug Trumm is The Urbanist's Executive Director. An Urbanist writer since 2015, he dreams of pedestrianizing streets, blanketing the city in bus lanes, and unleashing a mass timber building spree to end the affordable housing shortage and avert our coming climate catastrophe. He graduated from the Evans School of Public Policy and Governance at the University of Washington. He lives in East Fremont and loves to explore the city on his bike.

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D C
  1. On what planet is Bruce Harrell center-right?
  2. Harrell is not as open to broad-based zoning reform as I’d like, but to suggest that most of the homelessness problem is due to high housing costs is disingenuous to say the least. There are tons of job opportunities here, the minimum wage is $16/hr, housing is available for those experiencing homelessness and those making under the area median income. We need more, but it is currently available. Those on the streets right now are refusing those opportunities usually for drug and mental health reasons. Zoning reform is not going to solve the issue of drugs and mental health crises.
  3. Being pro-business is not being anti-renter as framed in this article. The only reason I have a job and live here are because of successful Seattle businesses, this is true for many who choose to live here.
RDPence

Well said, D C. There’s a vast range of Seattle voters who just want City Hall to work, to get things done, and stop framing every single issue in mindless left/right dimensions.

Trying to frame Bruce Harrell as some type of crypto right-winger is just nonsense. He’s more apt to move Seattle out of its present morass than the other candidate. He’d have my vote if I still lived in Seattle.

TEC

DC while you make some salient points – you seem to be confusing the most dire of those unhoused with others who are without homes who do have jobs, attend school etc. There is a pretty broad swathe of people experiencing homelessness in our region – sadly those w mental health and/or substance issues are the most visible. Regarding Harrell, I believe he is cast as center-right in regards to this race and our City’s politics. He’s hardly a Republican in the national sense.

Alexander Broner
  1. When a candidate can count on the vast majority of Republican voters in a city (along with some Democrats) that’s the candidate of the center-right. When they only do what big business will let you do, that makes them center right. When they only do what privileged voters (see above) will let them do, that makes them center right.
  2. He’s completely opposed to it. Not even a little bit open to it. 2a: It is indeed true that many people who are experiencing homelessness can and will find jobs. Many people are not homeless for life. Part of addressing the problem is maximizing the flow away from homelessness while minimizing the flow into homelessness. To get one of these $16 an hour jobs one still has to interview. What does your employment history look like? Will you get enough hours? How will you present yourself if you don’t have a clothes washer or a shower? Under Durkan many programs which offered assistance with things like Hygiene got defunded. Zoning reform isn’t a panacea. Neither can it be ignored, as Bruce Harrell intends to.
  3. Are there candidates who are “pro-renter” who don’t rely on trickledown economics for this claim? I’ve never heard of one.
B T

All zoning is exclusionary.