Democrats scored victories up and down the ballot across the country Tuesday night, and the picture in Washington state was no different. Election night returns, when about half of ballots are counted in Washington's vote-by-mail elections, indicated Democrats are likely on course to a two-thirds supermajority in the state House.
The Urbanist laid out the path to a Democratic supermajority in our post-primary analysis, and basically everything that could break their way did. Legislative District 17 and 18 in Clark County swung from Republicans to Democrats, as did LD14 in the Yakima Valley, clearing indicating a shift among Latino voters and high turnout in the Democratic base.
The last Republican holdout in Kitsap County's Legislative District 26 is no more, giving Democrats another pickup. Urbanist-endorsed Democrat Renee Hernandez Greenfield is up nearly 10 points over Republican Katy Cornell, who was hoping to pick up the baton from retiring Rep. Michelle Caldier.
The Democratic gains build on a decade of steady progress expanding their legislative margins. After the 2024 election, Democrats surpassed 60% in both chambers, but most supermajority advantages, like the possibility of passing amendments to the state constitution, kick in at the two-thirds mark.
Even races not fully on the radar as realistic pickup opportunities, like LD12 Position 1 and the LD35 senate race saw Democrats in the lead on election night. These largely rural districts have long been Republican strongholds.
In the 25th LD, school board director David Berg is leading Republican Rep. Michael Keaton by 1.6 points. The 25th represents the last district in the Seattle-Tacoma metropolitan area still held by Republicans after a decade of steady losses. Republican seatmate Cyndy Jacobsen is grasping to a razor-thin 109-vote lead over Democratic challenger Jenn Marie Strickling.
In the 35th, Democrat Carolina Mejia has a three-point lead over incumbent Republican Drew MacEwan. Down ballot, the Republican incumbents Dan Griffey and Travis Couture hold slim leads under one point. Democrat Jim Pierson is just 212 votes behind Griffey with tons of votes still to count.
In the 12th, Democrat challenger Stacy Willoughby is up three points over incumbent Republican Rep. Brian Burnett. The district covers Chelan County and crosses the Cascades into the eastern reaches of King and Snohomish counties. Republican seatmate Rep. Mike Steele is comfortably ahead, meanwhile, suggesting Burnett's profile – a Trump-endorsed former Chelan County sheriff is particularly odious to voters right now.
In the 39th, Republicans are also clinging to thin leads. On election night, Democrat Ida Keeley trailed Republican Steve Ewing by just 282 votes, with both vying to replace Rep. Caroline Eslick, who retired. GOP incumbent Sam Low had a larger five-point lead over Democrat Kathryn Lewandowsky in the Position 1 race. In 2024, a Democrat didn't even make it though the primary to face Low, and no Democrat ran against Eslick at all.
While likely on the path to a two-thirds majority in the state House, Democrats were not able to make quite the same gains in the state Senate, where only half of the seats are up in any given year. In a stroke of bad luck for Democrats, several Republican-held seats in more swing-y districts were not up this year, including LD14, LD17, LD25, and LD39. However, it could be tough sledding for those Republican incumbents in 2028 unless the state's political mood shifts significantly.
If election night leads hold, the Democrats' advantage in the state house will grow from 59-39 to 66-32, just across the two-thirds threshold. Pulling ahead in some or all of the close races in LD25-2, LD35-1, LD35-2, and LD39-2 would expand that supermajority.
Some efforts from conservative megadonors to defend centrist Democrats from progressive challenges also fell flat.
In the 48th LD, Redmond Councilmember Jessica Forsythe (who is Urbanist-endorsed) is leading incumbent State Senator Amy Walen by five points in election night results, despite more than a $1 million in outside spending. Microsoft-funded Washington Need to Compete political action committee (PAC) led the way investing $700,000 in the race. Walen once one of the few Democrats to vote against the millionaires tax, drawing ire from the progressive wing of the party. Forsythe saw a fair share of spending on her own behalf, with the state-employee funded New Direction PAC putting up more than $300,000 against Walen on top of $260,000 to promote Forsythe.
In the 29th LD, Democratic Rep. Melanie Morgan looks like she will lose to progressive, Urbanist-endorser challenger Krista Perez, after trailing by three points on election night. Morgan voted against the millionaires tax, breaking with her caucus.
Republicans also launched a frontal assault on the millionaires tax via statewide Initiative Measure No. 645, aiming to repeal the tax and blow a major hole in the state budget. That measure was resoundingly defeated, falling just short of 42% of the vote on election night. Democrats seeking to triangulate in opposing the millionaires tax seem to have made a miscalculation; they would have been more popular if they voted for it.
Republican efforts to force conservative judges onto the state Supreme Court also appears to have fizzled. The one exception is that Ian Birk (Urbanist-endorsed) is trailing Republican-backed Sean O'Donnell by two points, and will need to close the gap in later returns to survive. A Supreme Court takeover would have offered another route for conservatives to block the millionaires tax or other similar progressive revenue sources, but it doesn't look like the scheme worked.
Let's Go Washington, a PAC led by hedge fund multimillionaire Brian Heywood, ran the repeal measure along with two initiatives targeting trans rights. Initiative Measure 1 (which forces schools to potentially out queer kids to unsupportive parents) looks like it will fail, as it's down five points. However, Initiative Measure 638, which seeks to block trans girls from participating in school athletics, looks like it will pass, as it has 56% of the vote so far.
The setback on trans rights was one of the few blemishes on an otherwise triumphant night for progressives.
Doug Trumm
Austin Field
