Democrats Poised to Gain Seats in Washington State Legislature

Primary results finalized last week make clear that Washington State Democrats are on track to pick up seats in the state legislature this fall. The most dramatic flips are queued up in Clark County, where the 17th and 18th Legislative Districts are currently held by Republicans. Democrats are now heavily favored to win those House seats after a strong showing in the primary.

Democrats already flipped the 18th's state senate seat in 2024, putting Adrian Cortes into office. Democrats are now well-positioned to unseat the district's two Republican state House members, who are well below the 50% mark in the primary and extremely vulnerable.

Even the 14th LD (Yakima Valley) and 25th Legislative District (Greater Puyallup), which have both long been Republican strongholds, are looking to be in play after Republicans barely cleared the 50% bar. The 25th represents the last district in the Seattle-Tacoma metropolitan area still held by Republicans after a decade of steady losses. With 50.2% of the primary vote, incumbent Michael Keaton is holding on for dear life, and will face school board director David Berg.

In the 25th LD, increasing Democratic strength in Puyallup and along the Meridian corridor could make a flip possible. Jenn Marie Strickling managed nearly 47% of the vote in Position 2. (WA Community Alliance)

In swing districts where Republicans have hoped to erase recent losses, 2026 primary voters gave them no quarter. The 42nd LD (Whatcom County) continues to trend toward Democrats. Incumbent Rep. Alicia Rule grabbed 56% of the vote in Position 1, and incumbent Rep. Joe Timmons pulled in 54% in Position 2.

The same is true in the swingy 26th Legislative District, covering Kitsap County. Democrats won the most votes in all three races, led by state senator Deborah Krishnadasan's 56% share in her reelection bid. The Position 2 seat, meanwhile, is set to be a pickup for Democrats. Republican Rep. Michelle Caldier's retirement erased incumbency advantage in the race.

Democratic candidate Renee Hernandez Greenfield (who won the endorsement of the The Urbanist Elections Committee, on which I serve) will face Republican primary winner Katy Cornell, who mustered 44.7% of the vote. Hernandez Greenfield will likely complete the sweep of 26th for Democrats.

The lack of Republican momentum in Washington State pours cold water on the theory that a conservative backlash is brewing due to the passage of progressive legislation, such as the millionaires' tax or carbon pricing in the Climate Commitment Act, moves which Republican leaders and conservative-leaning pundits have framed as oversteps. In fact, Democrats only continue to gain.

State democrats already secured a supermajority, winning more than 60% of seats in 2024, but that majority is on course to grow. If they flip two house seats in 17th and 18th and the take last Republican holdout in the 26th, that would be a gain of five House seats. Democrats' 59-39 advantage in the house would grow to 64-34, a 30-seat edge.

If the 14th and 25th LDs come into play, the margin would be even greater. With the Trump brand so toxic in Washington state and Republicans in full-blown political collapse mode, it's certainly possible.

Democratic surge in 17th and 18th LDs

The 17th LD currently has a Republican trifecta. State Senator Paul Harris narrowly fended off a Democratic challenger in 2024, winning 51% of the vote. He'll survive 2026 only by the fact he's not up for reelection until 2028.

The 18th and 17th Legislative Districts border Vancouver, with the 17th stretching from Camas east to White Salmon and Goldendale. (Clark County Democrats)

Clark County is one of the fastest areas of the state, but it's also long been relatively conservative, seen as a low-tax safety value for the Portland metropolitan area and a magnet for retirees. Washington has no income tax (the millionaires' tax won't kick in until 2029 and all but the richest will be exempt) and Oregon has no sales tax; Clark County residents get the best of both worlds if they drive across the border to shop.

While the 49th LD, which spans the county seat of Vancouver, has been held by Democrats, the rest of the more sprawling Clark County exurbs have traditionally been fertile ground for Republicans. That appears on the cusp of changing.

Final primary results for Position 1 state house races. In the 17th LD, Democrats ran up their totals in Camas and White Salmon. The 18th LD stretches from the northern edge of Vancouver to Battle Ground. (Washington Community Alliance)

Democrats didn't just eke out a narrow win in the primary; they dominated. Incumbent Republican Rep. Paul Stuebe managed to win just 45% of the vote. He appears set to lose to Diane Perez, who won 55%. Double digit losses for incumbents are rare, but Stuebe found a way.

Diane Perez won a resounding victory in the August primary. She is pictured front row in the blazer alongside supporters. (Perez campaign)

Incumbent Rep. Kevin Waters did even worse, winning just 43.9% of the vote. Democratic challenger Ben Christly won 52.3% and is the clear frontrunner. It's a shocking fall for an incumbent that did not even face a challenger in 2024 and coasted to victory running unopposed.

The 2024 primary was less friendly to Democrats, who have since flipped the southeastern precincts of the 18th LD. (Washington Community Alliance)

In the 18th LD, Democratic challenger Randi Knott is leading incumbent Rep. Stephanie McClintock 52% to 48%. In the Position 2 race, union organizer Deken Letinich is leading incumbent Rep. John Ley 53% to 46%.

State senate candidates go to recount in the 42nd

Even an open seat state senate seat was tough sledding for the Republican candidate, Erika Creydt, who managed to win just 44.5% of the vote against two Democrats and an independent. Incumbent Sharon Shewmake, somewhat of an urbanist celebrity who is known to hand out bicycle pins to allies around Olympia, declined to seek an additional term.

The Democrat who made it through in the 42nd is not yet official. Michael Alvarez Shepard edged out Eamonn Collins by just four votes, a margin so close it triggered a hand recount, which started Tuesday and is expected to be completed by Friday.

Progressives battle centrist Democrats to mixed results

Flipping Republican seats isn't the only way that the state Democratic caucus will change. The 2026 primary also saw a good number of progressive candidates challenging more centrist or establishment Democrats.

Kelabe Tewolde is the leading candidate in the 37th LD Position 1 race, despite facing a 28-year incumbent. (Tewolde campaign)

Educator Kelabe Tewolde fared the best of the lefties challenging incumbents, winning 51.5% of the vote to 47.8% for 28-year incumbent Sharon Tomiko Santos. Tewolde secured a number of high-profile endorsements, including from King County Executive Girmay Zahilay, Seattle Councilmember Alexis Mercedes Rinck, The Stranger, and The Urbanist.

In the Rainier Valley's 37th LD, precincts shown in blue went to Tewalde and purple districts voted for Tomiko Santos. A familiar pattern emerges in which denser, apartment-heavy areas generally favored the progressive, and wealthy lakeview corridors the centrist status quo. (WA Community Alliance)

Redmond City Councilmember Jessica Forsythe also has a strong chance of unseating incumbent Rep. Amy Walen in the 48th LD. Forsythe narrowly edged Walen in the primary by 17 votes. It's sure to be one of the most expensive state legislature races this fall, with wealthy backers likely to flood support for Walen, who drew the ire of progressives for voting against the millionaires' tax and statewide middle housing reform. Just two years ago, big money poured in to help Walen get elected to the Senate, a bid that fell flat with voters sticking with incumbent Vandana Slatter.

Forsythe's base of support (precincts shown in blue) is in Redmond and Bellevue's Bel-Red corridor. Walen's precincts (purple) skewed toward the wealthy enclaves of Yarrow Point, Clyde Hill, and Medina and along the lakes. (WA Community Alliance)

Forsythe's endorsements include The Urbanist, King County Democrats, the Washington State Labor Council, WA Bikes, Sierra Club, former Governor Jay Inslee, and (perhaps not surprisingly) Senator Slatter.

Likewise, former Tacoma Council candidate Krista Perez emerged from the primary leading incumbent Rep. Melanie Morgan in the 29th LD. Endorsed by The Urbanist, Perez is 2.3 points ahead of Morgan, who has just 46% of the vote, but Perez's victory was muted by a DUI arrest this month, which could well be a drag on her chances in the general – especially in light from some cringeworthy comments from her lawyer, seeking to paint drunk driving crashes as no big deal.

Surrounded by state legislators and supporters, Governor Bob Ferguson signs the millionaires' tax into law, with Senator Majority Leader Jamie Pedersen, who sponsored the legislation, just to the right. (Washington Governor's Office)

In the 46th LD, long-time Rep. Gerry Pollet, who has often been a thorn in the side of urbanists on housing reforms, is fending off a progressive challenge. Pollet mustered 51.6% of the vote so he remains favored as he squares off with challenger Will Dreher in the primary. A litigator promising reforms to AI policy, Dreher earned The Stranger's endorsement, which propelled him to victory over Urbanist-backed Ron Davis. After getting knocked out in the primary, Davis endorsed Pollet, posting a screed on his website claiming The Stranger's ownership group had intervened and blocked him from being endorsed, which the union representing the Stranger's staff has refuted. Even with Davis nipping at his heels, Dreher might still have a shot to close the gap.

In the 43rd LD, the bid from labor leader Hannah Sabio-Howell to unseat Senate Majority Leader Jamie Pedersen looks to be ill-fated after Pedersen won tw0-thirds of the primary vote. A former chair of The Urbanist Elections Committee, Sabio-Howell had a number of progressive endorsements (including from The Urbanist, State Rep. Shaun Scott, Seattle Mayor Katie Wilson, and Councilmember Rinck). However, it was not enough to erase Pedersen's incumbency advantage, especially with him fresh off of passing the millionaires' tax, which he spearheaded as lead sponsor. The Stranger endorsed Pedersen, likely sapping progressive support from Sabio-H0well.

While Sabio-Howell supporters may find her result disappointing, Washington Community Alliance executive director Kamau Chege (who is also Sabio-Howell's spouse) argued in an op-ed in The Urbanist that progressive challenges are steadily defining the party and pulling it out its centrist rut, even if some particular candidates come up short. Perhaps, Pedersen never would have become an enthusiastic backer of the millionaires tax or rent stabilization if not for the credible threat of a progressive coming for his seat.

Whatever the particular reasons for shifts in each race, the 2027 state legislature is poised to be the progressive in Washington history.